Track record
How our models performed on history they did not see during calibration. Updated after each calibration; nothing is removed.
Paper account: our own forecasts, traded with a made-up budget
Since its start date the account trades every confident forecast by rules frozen in advance: the size from the risk, a stop and a target, a time limit, the exchange's fees. Nothing is picked afterwards and losing trades stay. It is a fictional $10,000, not client money.
- Start, 24 Sept
- $10,000
- Now, with open positions
- $9,828
- Result
- −1.7%
- Largest fall from a peak
- 2.7%
- Closed trades
- 4 of 12 in profit
| Pair | Side | Opened | Closed | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARB | fall | 30 Sept | 3 Oct (time limit) | +$12 |
| BCH | fall | 30 Sept | 3 Oct (time limit) | −$25 |
| BNB | rise | 30 Sept | 3 Oct (time limit) | +$56 |
| BTC | rise | 30 Sept | 3 Oct (time limit) | +$25 |
| SEI | fall | 30 Sept | 3 Oct (time limit) | +$28 |
| TRX | rise | 30 Sept | 1 Oct (stop) | −$21 |
| BTC | rise | 24 Sept | 28 Sept (time limit) | −$6 |
| DOGE | fall | 24 Sept | 28 Sept (time limit) | −$16 |
| NEAR | fall | 24 Sept | 28 Sept (stop) | −$102 |
| TIA | fall | 24 Sept | 28 Sept (time limit) | −$30 |
The latest forecasts for BTC 4h and what happened
The open example of the app: every direction forecast of the model as it was made, and the outcome when it is known. The same log is on each asset's page in the app.
Came true: 11 of 14 forecasts judged so far (10 bars ahead).
| Made | Said | Checked at | Price change | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct, 12:00 | rather up 51.6% | 6 Oct, 04:00 | — | waiting |
| 4 Oct, 08:00 | rather up 50.9% | 6 Oct, 00:00 | — | waiting |
| 1 Oct, 00:00 | rather up 51.8% | 2 Oct, 16:00 | +2% | ✓ came true |
| 30 Sept, 20:00 | rather up 53.5% | 2 Oct, 12:00 | +3.4% | ✓ came true |
| 30 Sept, 16:00 | rather up 54.2% | 2 Oct, 08:00 | +2.3% | ✓ came true |
| 30 Sept, 12:00 | rather up 51.6% | 2 Oct, 04:00 | +1.9% | ✓ came true |
| 30 Sept, 08:00 | rather up 53.3% | 2 Oct, 00:00 | +1.9% | ✓ came true |
| 30 Sept, 04:00 | rather up 53.9% | 1 Oct, 20:00 | +1.7% | ✓ came true |
| 25 Sept, 16:00 | rather up 53.5% | 27 Sept, 08:00 | +1.2% | ✓ came true |
| 25 Sept, 08:00 | rather up 51.6% | 27 Sept, 00:00 | +0.5% | ✓ came true |
| 25 Sept, 04:00 | rather up 51.6% | 26 Sept, 20:00 | −0.3% | ✗ did not |
| 24 Sept, 16:00 | rather up 52.8% | 26 Sept, 08:00 | −0.4% | ✗ did not |
Times in UTC.
Direction over the next N bars
Probability that the price closes higher after 5, 10 or 20 bars (pooled + per-asset logistic model). Confirmed only with at least +3 pp over the better of «always up» and momentum, after correcting for every pair, model and horizon tested.
Confirmed: 0 of 261 pair × horizon combinations.
Live, last 90 days (calls judged so far):
- 1h · 5 bars: 52.6% right of 925 calls; best simple rule (always up) 60.5% · 10 bars: 54.7% right of 920 calls; best simple rule (always up) 58.3% · 20 bars: 51.0% right of 919 calls; best simple rule (always up) 58.0%
- 4h · 5 bars: 53.4% right of 382 calls; best simple rule (always up) 68.8% · 10 bars: 39.2% right of 385 calls; best simple rule (always up) 73.5% · 20 bars: 36.4% right of 385 calls; best simple rule (always up) 65.5%
- 1d · 5 bars: 46.0% right of 87 calls; best simple rule (always up) 55.2% · 10 bars: 31.0% right of 29 calls; best simple rule (always up) 79.3% · 20 bars: no calls judged yet
All 261 combinations
| Pair | Horizon | Direction accuracy | Best baseline | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE 4h | 5 bars | 56.4% | 50.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +5.5% | No proven edge |
| DOT 4h | 5 bars | 54.5% | 49.2% (momentum) | +5.4% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 1h | 5 bars | 53.2% | 48.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +4.6% | No proven edge |
| LTC 1d | 20 bars | 53.5% | 48.9% (always up) | +4.6% | No proven edge |
| ETH 1h | 5 bars | 52.8% | 48.2% (always up) | +4.6% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 1h | 5 bars | 54.6% | 50.1% (always up) | +4.5% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 4h | 5 bars | 53.3% | 49.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +4.2% | No proven edge |
| BCH 1h | 5 bars | 54.2% | 50.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +4.0% | No proven edge |
| LTC 4h | 5 bars | 54.1% | 50.0% (always up) | +4.0% | No proven edge |
| FIL 4h | 20 bars | 52.8% | 48.8% (the asset's usual direction) | +4.0% | No proven edge |
| LTC 1h | 20 bars | 54.7% | 50.9% (always up) | +3.8% | No proven edge |
| LTC 1h | 5 bars | 52.5% | 48.8% (always up) | +3.7% | No proven edge |
| SUI 4h | 20 bars | 54.2% | 50.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.5% | No proven edge |
| UNI 4h | 20 bars | 52.6% | 49.1% (always up) | +3.5% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 1h | 20 bars | 53.0% | 49.5% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.5% | No proven edge |
| LINK 4h | 20 bars | 52.5% | 49.2% (always up) | +3.4% | No proven edge |
| LTC 1d | 5 bars | 53.4% | 50.1% (always up) | +3.4% | No proven edge |
| FIL 1h | 20 bars | 53.0% | 49.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.3% | No proven edge |
| LINK 4h | 10 bars | 52.9% | 49.6% (momentum) | +3.3% | No proven edge |
| FIL 4h | 5 bars | 54.4% | 51.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.3% | No proven edge |
| DOT 4h | 10 bars | 53.3% | 50.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.2% | No proven edge |
| INJ 4h | 10 bars | 52.4% | 49.2% (momentum) | +3.2% | No proven edge |
| LINK 1d | 20 bars | 51.9% | 48.7% (always up) | +3.2% | No proven edge |
| DOT 1h | 5 bars | 52.7% | 49.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.1% | No proven edge |
| SUI 1h | 5 bars | 52.1% | 49.0% (always up) | +3.1% | No proven edge |
| UNI 4h | 10 bars | 51.9% | 48.9% (momentum) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 4h | 20 bars | 52.2% | 49.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| ETC 1h | 20 bars | 51.2% | 48.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| LINK 1h | 20 bars | 51.6% | 48.6% (always up) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| XRP 4h | 5 bars | 53.5% | 50.5% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| XRP 1h | 5 bars | 52.2% | 49.2% (always up) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 1d | 20 bars | 55.5% | 52.4% (momentum) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| ETC 4h | 10 bars | 54.3% | 51.3% (the asset's usual direction) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 4h | 5 bars | 53.6% | 50.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.9% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 1h | 5 bars | 53.6% | 50.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.9% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 1h | 10 bars | 52.4% | 49.5% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.8% | No proven edge |
| ETC 1h | 5 bars | 51.3% | 48.5% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.8% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 1h | 20 bars | 52.7% | 49.8% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.8% | No proven edge |
| LTC 1d | 10 bars | 52.4% | 49.6% (always up) | +2.8% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 4h | 10 bars | 51.3% | 48.6% (always up) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| BNB 1h | 5 bars | 52.9% | 50.2% (always up) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| UNI 1h | 20 bars | 52.0% | 49.3% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| ADA 1d | 5 bars | 52.0% | 49.3% (momentum) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| BNB 4h | 5 bars | 54.3% | 51.6% (always up) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| BTC 4h | 10 bars | 53.7% | 51.0% (always up) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| BCH 1h | 20 bars | 53.6% | 50.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 1d | 10 bars | 51.9% | 49.2% (always up) | +2.6% | No proven edge |
| XRP 4h | 10 bars | 55.2% | 52.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.6% | No proven edge |
| SEI 4h | 20 bars | 52.3% | 49.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.6% | No proven edge |
| ETC 4h | 5 bars | 53.2% | 50.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.5% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 1d | 5 bars | 51.6% | 49.2% (always up) | +2.5% | No proven edge |
| BCH 4h | 10 bars | 52.5% | 50.0% (always up) | +2.5% | No proven edge |
| ADA 1d | 20 bars | 53.3% | 50.8% (momentum) | +2.4% | No proven edge |
| UNI 1d | 10 bars | 55.6% | 53.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.4% | No proven edge |
| BTC 4h | 5 bars | 52.6% | 50.3% (always up) | +2.3% | No proven edge |
| XLM 1h | 5 bars | 50.7% | 48.4% (momentum) | +2.3% | No proven edge |
| ADA 1h | 5 bars | 52.3% | 50.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.3% | No proven edge |
| LINK 1h | 5 bars | 50.6% | 48.3% (always up) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| ARB 1h | 5 bars | 53.4% | 51.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| UNI 4h | 5 bars | 53.3% | 51.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 4h | 20 bars | 54.5% | 52.3% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| LTC 1h | 10 bars | 52.8% | 50.6% (always up) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| SOL 1h | 5 bars | 52.3% | 50.1% (always up) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| ADA 1d | 10 bars | 52.3% | 50.1% (momentum) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| INJ 1h | 5 bars | 55.4% | 53.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 4h | 10 bars | 54.3% | 52.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| APT 4h | 10 bars | 54.5% | 52.4% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| APT 4h | 20 bars | 55.1% | 52.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.1% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 4h | 20 bars | 51.7% | 49.6% (always up) | +2.1% | No proven edge |
| SOL 4h | 10 bars | 52.1% | 50.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.1% | No proven edge |
| ADA 4h | 10 bars | 53.3% | 51.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.1% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 1h | 5 bars | 52.4% | 50.3% (momentum) | +2.1% | No proven edge |
| ETH 4h | 5 bars | 52.1% | 50.1% (always up) | +2.0% | No proven edge |
| XRP 1h | 20 bars | 52.1% | 50.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.0% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 4h | 20 bars | 54.0% | 52.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +2.0% | No proven edge |
| SOL 1h | 10 bars | 52.1% | 50.2% (always up) | +1.9% | No proven edge |
| INJ 4h | 20 bars | 51.1% | 49.3% (always up) | +1.9% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 1d | 10 bars | 53.6% | 51.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.8% | No proven edge |
| INJ 1d | 10 bars | 52.1% | 50.2% (always up) | +1.8% | No proven edge |
| BCH 4h | 5 bars | 52.7% | 50.9% (always up) | +1.8% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 1h | 5 bars | 51.6% | 49.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.8% | No proven edge |
| BTC 1h | 5 bars | 51.8% | 50.0% (always up) | +1.7% | No proven edge |
| ETC 1d | 5 bars | 52.8% | 51.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.7% | No proven edge |
| LTC 4h | 10 bars | 53.4% | 51.7% (always up) | +1.7% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 4h | 10 bars | 51.4% | 49.8% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.7% | No proven edge |
| FIL 1h | 5 bars | 50.0% | 48.4% (momentum) | +1.6% | No proven edge |
| ADA 4h | 5 bars | 53.3% | 51.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.6% | No proven edge |
| TIA 4h | 5 bars | 54.3% | 52.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.6% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 4h | 20 bars | 54.8% | 53.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.6% | No proven edge |
| BCH 1h | 10 bars | 53.4% | 51.8% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.6% | No proven edge |
| ETC 1d | 20 bars | 54.7% | 53.2% (momentum) | +1.6% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 1h | 10 bars | 51.2% | 49.7% (always up) | +1.5% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 4h | 5 bars | 54.4% | 52.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.5% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 1d | 20 bars | 54.6% | 53.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.5% | No proven edge |
| BCH 1d | 10 bars | 49.2% | 47.8% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.4% | No proven edge |
| LINK 1d | 5 bars | 50.7% | 49.2% (always up) | +1.4% | No proven edge |
| OP 1h | 5 bars | 53.6% | 52.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.4% | No proven edge |
| ARB 1d | 20 bars | 55.2% | 53.9% (momentum) | +1.3% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 4h | 10 bars | 51.7% | 50.4% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.3% | No proven edge |
| XRP 4h | 20 bars | 53.9% | 52.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.3% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 4h | 5 bars | 52.5% | 51.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.3% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 1h | 10 bars | 50.7% | 49.4% (momentum) | +1.3% | No proven edge |
| LINK 4h | 5 bars | 50.8% | 49.6% (always up) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| DOT 4h | 20 bars | 52.7% | 51.5% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| SOL 4h | 20 bars | 52.2% | 51.0% (always up) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| UNI 1h | 5 bars | 52.4% | 51.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 1d | 10 bars | 52.3% | 51.1% (momentum) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| APT 1d | 20 bars | 56.3% | 55.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| UNI 1d | 20 bars | 55.1% | 53.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| LINK 1h | 10 bars | 51.0% | 49.9% (always up) | +1.1% | No proven edge |
| FIL 1h | 10 bars | 51.1% | 50.0% (always up) | +1.1% | No proven edge |
| INJ 1d | 5 bars | 51.6% | 50.5% (always up) | +1.1% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 1d | 20 bars | 55.0% | 54.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +1.0% | No proven edge |
| ETH 1h | 10 bars | 51.9% | 51.0% (always up) | +1.0% | No proven edge |
| ETC 1d | 10 bars | 52.2% | 51.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| LINK 1d | 10 bars | 50.0% | 49.0% (always up) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| BTC 1d | 20 bars | 53.0% | 52.1% (always up) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| ETC 1h | 10 bars | 50.1% | 49.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| OP 1h | 10 bars | 51.5% | 50.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 4h | 20 bars | 52.7% | 51.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| XRP 1d | 10 bars | 55.0% | 54.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| XLM 4h | 10 bars | 54.8% | 54.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| TIA 1h | 5 bars | 53.5% | 52.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 4h | 10 bars | 52.9% | 52.1% (momentum) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| OP 4h | 5 bars | 52.4% | 51.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| XLM 1h | 20 bars | 52.4% | 51.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.8% | No proven edge |
| XLM 4h | 5 bars | 54.0% | 53.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.8% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 1d | 5 bars | 51.1% | 50.3% (momentum) | +0.8% | No proven edge |
| DOT 1h | 10 bars | 51.7% | 50.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.8% | No proven edge |
| BNB 1h | 20 bars | 52.6% | 51.8% (always up) | +0.8% | No proven edge |
| BNB 1d | 20 bars | 55.0% | 54.3% (always up) | +0.7% | No proven edge |
| SOL 4h | 5 bars | 50.8% | 50.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.7% | No proven edge |
| BCH 1d | 5 bars | 50.0% | 49.3% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.7% | No proven edge |
| LTC 4h | 20 bars | 51.5% | 50.9% (always up) | +0.7% | No proven edge |
| BTC 1h | 20 bars | 52.2% | 51.5% (always up) | +0.6% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 1d | 5 bars | 50.6% | 49.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.6% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 1h | 10 bars | 52.1% | 51.5% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.6% | No proven edge |
| INJ 1h | 10 bars | 52.1% | 51.5% (momentum) | +0.6% | No proven edge |
| SUI 4h | 10 bars | 52.9% | 52.3% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.6% | No proven edge |
| INJ 4h | 5 bars | 49.6% | 49.1% (momentum) | +0.5% | No proven edge |
| ARB 1d | 5 bars | 51.5% | 51.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.5% | No proven edge |
| XRP 1d | 5 bars | 53.6% | 53.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.5% | No proven edge |
| SUI 1h | 10 bars | 51.7% | 51.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.4% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 4h | 10 bars | 52.9% | 52.5% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.4% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 1d | 20 bars | 53.2% | 52.8% (momentum) | +0.4% | No proven edge |
| ETH 4h | 10 bars | 51.2% | 50.8% (always up) | +0.4% | No proven edge |
| APT 1h | 10 bars | 50.3% | 50.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.4% | No proven edge |
| OP 1h | 20 bars | 52.2% | 51.9% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.4% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 4h | 5 bars | 50.6% | 50.2% (momentum) | +0.3% | No proven edge |
| ETH 1h | 20 bars | 51.2% | 50.9% (always up) | +0.3% | No proven edge |
| SOL 1h | 20 bars | 50.0% | 49.7% (always up) | +0.3% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 1d | 5 bars | 52.2% | 52.0% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.3% | No proven edge |
| APT 4h | 5 bars | 51.9% | 51.6% (momentum) | +0.3% | No proven edge |
| SUI 4h | 5 bars | 51.8% | 51.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.2% | No proven edge |
| ARB 4h | 20 bars | 54.4% | 54.1% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.2% | No proven edge |
| UNI 1d | 5 bars | 52.4% | 52.2% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.2% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 1h | 20 bars | 49.7% | 49.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.1% | No proven edge |
| ETH 1d | 5 bars | 51.4% | 51.3% (always up) | +0.1% | No proven edge |
| TIA 1d | 5 bars | 53.8% | 53.7% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.1% | No proven edge |
| BCH 4h | 20 bars | 49.7% | 49.6% (the asset's usual direction) | +0.0% | No proven edge |
| SUI 1d | 20 bars | 51.9% | 51.9% (momentum) | +0.0% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 1h | 5 bars | 50.5% | 50.5% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.0% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 1h | 20 bars | 52.8% | 52.9% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.1% | No proven edge |
| ADA 1h | 10 bars | 50.1% | 50.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.1% | No proven edge |
| ARB 4h | 5 bars | 51.7% | 51.8% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.1% | No proven edge |
| APT 1d | 5 bars | 51.6% | 51.7% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.1% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 1h | 10 bars | 50.1% | 50.2% (always up) | -0.1% | No proven edge |
| SUI 1h | 20 bars | 52.9% | 53.0% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.2% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 1d | 10 bars | 52.2% | 52.5% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.2% | No proven edge |
| XLM 1h | 10 bars | 49.2% | 49.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.2% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 1d | 20 bars | 59.6% | 59.9% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.3% | No proven edge |
| BTC 1h | 10 bars | 51.5% | 51.8% (always up) | -0.3% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 1h | 10 bars | 50.0% | 50.3% (momentum) | -0.4% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 1h | 5 bars | 49.6% | 50.0% (momentum) | -0.4% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 1d | 20 bars | 54.3% | 54.8% (momentum) | -0.4% | No proven edge |
| FIL 4h | 10 bars | 52.2% | 52.7% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.5% | No proven edge |
| XRP 1h | 10 bars | 49.2% | 49.8% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| ADA 1h | 20 bars | 49.9% | 50.5% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| TRX 4h | 20 bars | 55.5% | 56.1% (always up) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| SEI 1h | 5 bars | 52.7% | 53.3% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| DOT 1d | 5 bars | 51.6% | 52.2% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| ADA 4h | 20 bars | 52.2% | 52.8% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| UNI 1h | 10 bars | 50.5% | 51.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 4h | 10 bars | 52.8% | 53.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.6% | No proven edge |
| SEI 4h | 5 bars | 52.7% | 53.5% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.7% | No proven edge |
| BNB 4h | 20 bars | 53.3% | 54.0% (always up) | -0.7% | No proven edge |
| BCH 1d | 20 bars | 48.0% | 48.7% (momentum) | -0.7% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 1h | 20 bars | 51.3% | 52.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.8% | No proven edge |
| OP 4h | 20 bars | 53.9% | 54.7% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.8% | No proven edge |
| INJ 1d | 20 bars | 52.8% | 53.6% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.8% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 1d | 5 bars | 51.3% | 52.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.8% | No proven edge |
| DOGE 1d | 10 bars | 50.5% | 51.3% (momentum) | -0.8% | No proven edge |
| OP 1d | 5 bars | 50.1% | 50.9% (the asset's usual direction) | -0.8% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 4h | 5 bars | 49.7% | 50.5% (momentum) | -0.9% | No proven edge |
| ARB 1d | 10 bars | 49.7% | 50.6% (momentum) | -0.9% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 1h | 20 bars | 49.8% | 50.8% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.0% | No proven edge |
| BNB 4h | 10 bars | 51.7% | 52.8% (always up) | -1.0% | No proven edge |
| BNB 1d | 5 bars | 50.2% | 51.2% (always up) | -1.1% | No proven edge |
| TRX 1h | 20 bars | 52.7% | 53.7% (always up) | -1.1% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 1d | 5 bars | 51.5% | 52.6% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.1% | No proven edge |
| ARB 4h | 10 bars | 51.3% | 52.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.1% | No proven edge |
| BNB 1h | 10 bars | 50.9% | 52.0% (always up) | -1.1% | No proven edge |
| TIA 1h | 20 bars | 51.5% | 52.6% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.1% | No proven edge |
| ARB 1h | 10 bars | 51.3% | 52.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.1% | No proven edge |
| BTC 1d | 5 bars | 50.5% | 51.7% (always up) | -1.2% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 1d | 10 bars | 58.0% | 59.2% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.2% | No proven edge |
| APT 1h | 20 bars | 50.2% | 51.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.2% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 4h | 20 bars | 54.2% | 55.3% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.2% | No proven edge |
| DOT 1h | 20 bars | 50.7% | 51.9% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.2% | No proven edge |
| XLM 4h | 20 bars | 53.1% | 54.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.2% | No proven edge |
| ETC 4h | 20 bars | 52.5% | 53.7% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.2% | No proven edge |
| ETH 1d | 10 bars | 48.9% | 50.2% (always up) | -1.3% | No proven edge |
| BTC 1d | 10 bars | 51.5% | 52.8% (always up) | -1.3% | No proven edge |
| SEI 4h | 10 bars | 49.5% | 50.9% (momentum) | -1.3% | No proven edge |
| OP 1d | 10 bars | 49.3% | 50.7% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.4% | No proven edge |
| TIA 4h | 10 bars | 51.8% | 53.3% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.5% | No proven edge |
| OP 4h | 10 bars | 49.9% | 51.5% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.5% | No proven edge |
| ETH 4h | 20 bars | 51.3% | 52.9% (always up) | -1.6% | No proven edge |
| APT 1h | 5 bars | 51.2% | 52.8% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.6% | No proven edge |
| TIA 1d | 20 bars | 55.2% | 57.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.8% | No proven edge |
| TIA 1h | 10 bars | 50.8% | 52.6% (the asset's usual direction) | -1.8% | No proven edge |
| BTC 4h | 20 bars | 50.0% | 51.8% (always up) | -1.8% | No proven edge |
| TRX 4h | 5 bars | 51.5% | 53.3% (always up) | -1.8% | No proven edge |
| ARB 1h | 20 bars | 50.6% | 52.7% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.1% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 1d | 10 bars | 51.8% | 53.9% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.1% | No proven edge |
| OP 1d | 20 bars | 57.0% | 59.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.1% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 1h | 10 bars | 49.2% | 51.4% (momentum) | -2.2% | No proven edge |
| XRP 1d | 20 bars | 55.9% | 58.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.2% | No proven edge |
| INJ 1h | 20 bars | 49.7% | 51.9% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.2% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 1d | 5 bars | 55.3% | 57.5% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.2% | No proven edge |
| XLM 1d | 20 bars | 50.0% | 52.3% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.3% | No proven edge |
| SEI 1h | 10 bars | 51.1% | 53.6% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.6% | No proven edge |
| DOT 1d | 10 bars | 53.4% | 56.0% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.6% | No proven edge |
| TRX 4h | 10 bars | 51.7% | 54.4% (always up) | -2.6% | No proven edge |
| TRX 1h | 5 bars | 50.3% | 52.9% (momentum) | -2.7% | No proven edge |
| ATOM 1h | 20 bars | 48.7% | 51.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.7% | No proven edge |
| TRX 1h | 10 bars | 50.2% | 52.9% (always up) | -2.7% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 1d | 20 bars | 51.2% | 54.0% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.8% | No proven edge |
| APT 1d | 10 bars | 52.1% | 55.0% (the asset's usual direction) | -2.9% | No proven edge |
| BNB 1d | 10 bars | 49.7% | 52.9% (always up) | -3.2% | No proven edge |
| XLM 1d | 5 bars | 53.0% | 56.2% (the asset's usual direction) | -3.2% | No proven edge |
| SEI 1h | 20 bars | 50.9% | 54.4% (the asset's usual direction) | -3.5% | No proven edge |
| TIA 4h | 20 bars | 53.7% | 57.3% (the asset's usual direction) | -3.6% | No proven edge |
| SUI 1d | 10 bars | 46.5% | 50.4% (momentum) | -3.9% | No proven edge |
| SUI 1d | 5 bars | 48.1% | 52.3% (momentum) | -4.2% | No proven edge |
| SEI 1d | 20 bars | 58.3% | 63.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -4.8% | No proven edge |
| ETH 1d | 20 bars | 50.0% | 54.9% (momentum) | -4.8% | No proven edge |
| SEI 1d | 5 bars | 52.7% | 57.6% (the asset's usual direction) | -4.9% | No proven edge |
| XLM 1d | 10 bars | 53.1% | 58.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -5.1% | No proven edge |
| TIA 1d | 10 bars | 49.2% | 54.3% (the asset's usual direction) | -5.2% | No proven edge |
| SOL 1d | 5 bars | 46.3% | 51.7% (momentum) | -5.4% | No proven edge |
| SOL 1d | 10 bars | 44.2% | 49.8% (always up) | -5.6% | No proven edge |
| FIL 1d | 5 bars | 47.4% | 53.2% (the asset's usual direction) | -5.8% | No proven edge |
| SOL 1d | 20 bars | 45.6% | 51.6% (momentum) | -6.0% | No proven edge |
| SEI 1d | 10 bars | 52.8% | 59.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -6.2% | No proven edge |
| TRX 1d | 5 bars | 51.3% | 57.7% (always up) | -6.4% | No proven edge |
| DOT 1d | 20 bars | 53.1% | 60.5% (the asset's usual direction) | -7.5% | No proven edge |
| TRX 1d | 20 bars | 53.1% | 60.7% (always up) | -7.6% | No proven edge |
| TRX 1d | 10 bars | 51.6% | 59.5% (always up) | -7.9% | No proven edge |
| FIL 1d | 10 bars | 46.7% | 56.1% (the asset's usual direction) | -9.4% | No proven edge |
| FIL 1d | 20 bars | 50.4% | 60.9% (the asset's usual direction) | -10.5% | No proven edge |
Movement or calm over the next N bars
Probability that the high-to-low range over the next 5, 10 or 20 bars is larger than the asset's typical range (its median on the training data), whichever way the price goes. One logistic model for all assets. Confirmed only with at least +3 pp over the best simple rule (volatility as in the last bars, recent volatility, the usual outcome, always movement or always calm, the best chosen on the test data), after correcting for every pair and horizon tested. Shown for 1h and 4h: on daily bars it did not beat the simple rules.
Confirmed: 136 of 174 pair × horizon combinations. The table shows the 20 with the largest edge.
Live, last 90 days (calls judged so far):
- 1h · 5 bars: 79.6% right of 783 calls; best simple rule (always movement) 69.5% · 10 bars: 74.3% right of 783 calls; best simple rule (always movement) 57.9% · 20 bars: 64.1% right of 783 calls; best simple rule (as in the last bars) 63.1%
- 4h · 5 bars: 68.6% right of 299 calls; best simple rule (as in the last bars) 72.6% · 10 bars: 61.9% right of 299 calls; best simple rule (always calm) 74.6% · 20 bars: 64.2% right of 299 calls; best simple rule (always calm) 74.2%
| Pair | Horizon | Typical range | Accuracy | Best baseline | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL 1h | 5 bars | 2.6% | 77.7% | 70.2% (as in the last bars) | +7.4% | Confirmed |
| ETH 1h | 20 bars | 4.1% | 69.5% | 62.7% (as in the last bars) | +6.8% | Confirmed |
| TIA 1h | 5 bars | 3.7% | 72.9% | 66.3% (usual outcome) | +6.6% | Confirmed |
| AAVE 1h | 5 bars | 2.9% | 72.6% | 66.0% (as in the last bars) | +6.6% | Confirmed |
| FIL 1h | 5 bars | 2.7% | 73.4% | 67.0% (as in the last bars) | +6.5% | Confirmed |
| BTC 1h | 20 bars | 2.9% | 70.3% | 64.0% (recent volatility) | +6.3% | Confirmed |
| LINK 1h | 5 bars | 2.7% | 74.6% | 68.4% (recent volatility) | +6.2% | Confirmed |
| XRP 4h | 5 bars | 4.9% | 74.7% | 68.6% (as in the last bars) | +6.2% | Confirmed |
| AVAX 1h | 5 bars | 2.8% | 73.7% | 67.6% (recent volatility) | +6.1% | Confirmed |
| RENDER 1h | 10 bars | 4.9% | 72.2% | 66.1% (recent volatility) | +6.1% | Confirmed |
| ETH 1h | 5 bars | 1.9% | 73.6% | 67.6% (as in the last bars) | +6.0% | Confirmed |
| DOT 1h | 10 bars | 3.6% | 71.3% | 65.3% (recent volatility) | +6.0% | Confirmed |
| ETH 4h | 10 bars | 7.1% | 74.1% | 68.1% (recent volatility) | +6.0% | Confirmed |
| AAVE 1h | 10 bars | 4.2% | 69.5% | 63.7% (as in the last bars) | +5.8% | Confirmed |
| ETH 4h | 20 bars | 10.3% | 72.9% | 67.2% (always calm) | +5.8% | Confirmed |
| ADA 4h | 5 bars | 5.7% | 72.6% | 66.9% (as in the last bars) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| ADA 4h | 10 bars | 8.3% | 73.0% | 67.3% (recent volatility) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| DOGE 1h | 5 bars | 2.6% | 74.1% | 68.4% (as in the last bars) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| OP 1h | 5 bars | 3.1% | 72.8% | 67.1% (as in the last bars) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| OP 1h | 10 bars | 4.5% | 69.5% | 63.9% (as in the last bars) | +5.6% | Confirmed |
All 174 combinations
| Pair | Horizon | Typical range | Accuracy | Best baseline | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL 1h | 5 bars | 2.6% | 77.7% | 70.2% (as in the last bars) | +7.4% | Confirmed |
| ETH 1h | 20 bars | 4.1% | 69.5% | 62.7% (as in the last bars) | +6.8% | Confirmed |
| TIA 1h | 5 bars | 3.7% | 72.9% | 66.3% (usual outcome) | +6.6% | Confirmed |
| AAVE 1h | 5 bars | 2.9% | 72.6% | 66.0% (as in the last bars) | +6.6% | Confirmed |
| FIL 1h | 5 bars | 2.7% | 73.4% | 67.0% (as in the last bars) | +6.5% | Confirmed |
| BTC 1h | 20 bars | 2.9% | 70.3% | 64.0% (recent volatility) | +6.3% | Confirmed |
| LINK 1h | 5 bars | 2.7% | 74.6% | 68.4% (recent volatility) | +6.2% | Confirmed |
| XRP 4h | 5 bars | 4.9% | 74.7% | 68.6% (as in the last bars) | +6.2% | Confirmed |
| AVAX 1h | 5 bars | 2.8% | 73.7% | 67.6% (recent volatility) | +6.1% | Confirmed |
| RENDER 1h | 10 bars | 4.9% | 72.2% | 66.1% (recent volatility) | +6.1% | Confirmed |
| ETH 1h | 5 bars | 1.9% | 73.6% | 67.6% (as in the last bars) | +6.0% | Confirmed |
| DOT 1h | 10 bars | 3.6% | 71.3% | 65.3% (recent volatility) | +6.0% | Confirmed |
| ETH 4h | 10 bars | 7.1% | 74.1% | 68.1% (recent volatility) | +6.0% | Confirmed |
| AAVE 1h | 10 bars | 4.2% | 69.5% | 63.7% (as in the last bars) | +5.8% | Confirmed |
| ETH 4h | 20 bars | 10.3% | 72.9% | 67.2% (always calm) | +5.8% | Confirmed |
| ADA 4h | 5 bars | 5.7% | 72.6% | 66.9% (as in the last bars) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| ADA 4h | 10 bars | 8.3% | 73.0% | 67.3% (recent volatility) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| DOGE 1h | 5 bars | 2.6% | 74.1% | 68.4% (as in the last bars) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| OP 1h | 5 bars | 3.1% | 72.8% | 67.1% (as in the last bars) | +5.7% | Confirmed |
| OP 1h | 10 bars | 4.5% | 69.5% | 63.9% (as in the last bars) | +5.6% | Confirmed |
| DOT 4h | 10 bars | 8.4% | 75.6% | 70.0% (always calm) | +5.6% | Confirmed |
| BCH 4h | 10 bars | 7.6% | 69.0% | 63.4% (recent volatility) | +5.6% | Confirmed |
| DOT 1h | 5 bars | 2.5% | 73.8% | 68.3% (recent volatility) | +5.6% | Confirmed |
| APT 4h | 10 bars | 9.0% | 66.3% | 60.7% (as in the last bars) | +5.6% | Confirmed |
| ADA 1h | 5 bars | 2.5% | 74.7% | 69.2% (as in the last bars) | +5.5% | Confirmed |
| DOGE 1h | 10 bars | 3.9% | 71.9% | 66.4% (as in the last bars) | +5.5% | Confirmed |
| BTC 4h | 10 bars | 5.4% | 75.6% | 70.2% (recent volatility) | +5.4% | Confirmed |
| BTC 1h | 10 bars | 1.9% | 71.0% | 65.6% (as in the last bars) | +5.4% | Confirmed |
| ADA 4h | 20 bars | 12.0% | 70.5% | 65.3% (recent volatility) | +5.2% | Confirmed |
| APT 4h | 20 bars | 13.2% | 66.5% | 61.4% (recent volatility) | +5.1% | Confirmed |
| TIA 4h | 5 bars | 7.9% | 68.4% | 63.2% (as in the last bars) | +5.1% | Confirmed |
| BCH 4h | 5 bars | 5.3% | 72.5% | 67.4% (as in the last bars) | +5.1% | Confirmed |
| ATOM 1h | 5 bars | 2.4% | 74.2% | 69.1% (recent volatility) | +5.1% | Confirmed |
| UNI 4h | 5 bars | 6.6% | 78.4% | 73.3% (recent volatility) | +5.0% | Confirmed |
| XLM 1h | 20 bars | 4.4% | 74.9% | 69.9% (recent volatility) | +5.0% | Confirmed |
| NEAR 1h | 10 bars | 4.7% | 73.4% | 68.5% (as in the last bars) | +4.9% | Confirmed |
| ARB 1h | 20 bars | 6.1% | 69.7% | 64.8% (recent volatility) | +4.9% | Confirmed |
| ATOM 1h | 10 bars | 3.4% | 73.7% | 68.8% (recent volatility) | +4.9% | Confirmed |
| FIL 4h | 5 bars | 6.0% | 71.7% | 66.9% (recent volatility) | +4.8% | Confirmed |
| ARB 4h | 5 bars | 5.7% | 68.0% | 63.2% (recent volatility) | +4.8% | Confirmed |
| BCH 1h | 5 bars | 2.3% | 71.6% | 66.8% (recent volatility) | +4.8% | Confirmed |
| HBAR 1h | 5 bars | 2.7% | 76.5% | 71.7% (as in the last bars) | +4.8% | Confirmed |
| ATOM 4h | 20 bars | 13.5% | 79.4% | 74.6% (recent volatility) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| LINK 4h | 5 bars | 6.5% | 74.9% | 70.2% (recent volatility) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| SOL 1h | 20 bars | 5.6% | 75.8% | 71.0% (always calm) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| INJ 1h | 5 bars | 3.5% | 72.8% | 68.1% (recent volatility) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| UNI 1h | 10 bars | 4.2% | 69.1% | 64.4% (recent volatility) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| APT 4h | 5 bars | 6.1% | 67.8% | 63.1% (as in the last bars) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| AVAX 4h | 10 bars | 9.9% | 77.7% | 73.1% (always calm) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| LINK 1h | 10 bars | 3.8% | 71.9% | 67.2% (recent volatility) | +4.7% | Confirmed |
| BCH 4h | 20 bars | 10.9% | 67.8% | 63.2% (as in the last bars) | +4.6% | Confirmed |
| BNB 1h | 20 bars | 3.3% | 74.6% | 70.0% (recent volatility) | +4.6% | Confirmed |
| LINK 4h | 10 bars | 9.4% | 75.0% | 70.5% (recent volatility) | +4.5% | Confirmed |
| XLM 4h | 20 bars | 10.9% | 73.1% | 68.5% (recent volatility) | +4.5% | Confirmed |
| DOT 4h | 5 bars | 5.8% | 74.8% | 70.4% (as in the last bars) | +4.5% | Confirmed |
| ETH 1h | 10 bars | 2.8% | 70.2% | 65.7% (as in the last bars) | +4.5% | Confirmed |
| HBAR 1h | 20 bars | 5.7% | 74.7% | 70.2% (recent volatility) | +4.5% | Confirmed |
| OP 1h | 20 bars | 6.6% | 67.2% | 62.7% (recent volatility) | +4.5% | Confirmed |
| ATOM 4h | 10 bars | 9.3% | 78.9% | 74.4% (recent volatility) | +4.4% | Confirmed |
| AAVE 1h | 20 bars | 6.1% | 67.8% | 63.4% (recent volatility) | +4.4% | Confirmed |
| DOT 1h | 20 bars | 5.3% | 68.7% | 64.2% (recent volatility) | +4.4% | Confirmed |
| FIL 1h | 10 bars | 3.9% | 69.5% | 65.1% (recent volatility) | +4.4% | Confirmed |
| LTC 4h | 20 bars | 11.3% | 74.3% | 70.0% (as in the last bars) | +4.3% | Confirmed |
| ETC 1h | 10 bars | 3.2% | 70.7% | 66.4% (recent volatility) | +4.3% | Confirmed |
| INJ 1h | 10 bars | 5.0% | 70.3% | 66.0% (recent volatility) | +4.3% | Confirmed |
| SUI 1h | 20 bars | 7.1% | 70.9% | 66.7% (recent volatility) | +4.2% | Confirmed |
| ETH 4h | 5 bars | 4.9% | 74.2% | 70.0% (recent volatility) | +4.2% | Confirmed |
| FIL 4h | 10 bars | 8.9% | 70.2% | 65.9% (recent volatility) | +4.2% | Confirmed |
| XRP 4h | 10 bars | 7.1% | 73.1% | 68.9% (recent volatility) | +4.2% | Confirmed |
| DOGE 1h | 20 bars | 5.7% | 70.4% | 66.2% (as in the last bars) | +4.2% | Confirmed |
| ETC 1h | 20 bars | 4.8% | 71.3% | 67.1% (as in the last bars) | +4.2% | Confirmed |
| DOGE 4h | 20 bars | 11.4% | 71.4% | 67.2% (as in the last bars) | +4.2% | Confirmed |
| ATOM 4h | 5 bars | 6.4% | 79.4% | 75.2% (usual outcome) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| AVAX 4h | 5 bars | 6.9% | 76.8% | 72.7% (recent volatility) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| XLM 1h | 5 bars | 2.1% | 76.5% | 72.4% (as in the last bars) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| XRP 1h | 5 bars | 2.0% | 78.3% | 74.2% (as in the last bars) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| BTC 4h | 5 bars | 3.8% | 74.6% | 70.6% (recent volatility) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| DOGE 4h | 5 bars | 5.4% | 73.2% | 69.1% (recent volatility) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| BNB 1h | 5 bars | 1.6% | 75.7% | 71.6% (recent volatility) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| AVAX 1h | 20 bars | 5.9% | 70.0% | 65.9% (recent volatility) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| INJ 1h | 20 bars | 7.2% | 70.1% | 66.0% (recent volatility) | +4.1% | Confirmed |
| SUI 4h | 5 bars | 7.3% | 70.7% | 66.6% (recent volatility) | +4.0% | Confirmed |
| ARB 1h | 5 bars | 2.9% | 71.5% | 67.5% (as in the last bars) | +4.0% | Confirmed |
| ETC 4h | 5 bars | 5.4% | 75.9% | 71.9% (recent volatility) | +4.0% | Confirmed |
| SUI 1h | 5 bars | 3.4% | 74.1% | 70.2% (recent volatility) | +4.0% | Confirmed |
| SOL 1h | 10 bars | 3.9% | 75.3% | 71.4% (recent volatility) | +3.9% | Confirmed |
| TRX 4h | 20 bars | 8.7% | 87.1% | 83.2% (recent volatility) | +3.9% | Confirmed |
| BTC 4h | 20 bars | 8.0% | 73.3% | 69.4% (recent volatility) | +3.9% | Confirmed |
| ATOM 1h | 20 bars | 5.0% | 70.1% | 66.2% (recent volatility) | +3.8% | Confirmed |
| ADA 1h | 10 bars | 3.7% | 69.0% | 65.2% (as in the last bars) | +3.8% | Confirmed |
| INJ 4h | 10 bars | 11.9% | 76.0% | 72.2% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| XLM 4h | 5 bars | 5.1% | 74.9% | 71.1% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| DOT 4h | 20 bars | 12.1% | 73.0% | 69.3% (always calm) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| SOL 4h | 5 bars | 7.0% | 77.2% | 73.5% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| XLM 4h | 10 bars | 7.4% | 75.0% | 71.3% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| LTC 1h | 10 bars | 3.0% | 74.9% | 71.2% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| BNB 4h | 10 bars | 6.7% | 81.0% | 77.4% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| BNB 1h | 10 bars | 2.3% | 73.8% | 70.2% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| BTC 1h | 5 bars | 1.3% | 74.9% | 71.2% (as in the last bars) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| NEAR 1h | 5 bars | 3.2% | 74.8% | 71.1% (recent volatility) | +3.7% | Confirmed |
| LTC 4h | 5 bars | 5.5% | 76.4% | 72.8% (recent volatility) | +3.6% | Confirmed |
| DOGE 4h | 10 bars | 8.0% | 73.2% | 69.6% (as in the last bars) | +3.6% | Confirmed |
| AAVE 4h | 5 bars | 6.8% | 76.7% | 73.2% (always calm) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| TRX 1h | 5 bars | 0.9% | 76.7% | 73.2% (recent volatility) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| FIL 4h | 20 bars | 12.8% | 65.4% | 61.9% (recent volatility) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| UNI 4h | 10 bars | 9.4% | 76.9% | 73.4% (always calm) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| BNB 4h | 20 bars | 9.7% | 79.2% | 75.7% (as in the last bars) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| TIA 1h | 10 bars | 5.4% | 68.6% | 65.1% (always calm) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| TIA 1h | 20 bars | 7.7% | 68.9% | 65.4% (usual outcome) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| HBAR 1h | 10 bars | 3.9% | 73.5% | 70.1% (as in the last bars) | +3.5% | Confirmed |
| APT 1h | 20 bars | 6.2% | 68.4% | 65.0% (recent volatility) | +3.4% | Confirmed |
| RENDER 1h | 5 bars | 3.3% | 70.0% | 66.6% (recent volatility) | +3.4% | Confirmed |
| OP 4h | 10 bars | 10.0% | 67.4% | 64.0% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| APT 1h | 10 bars | 4.3% | 69.6% | 66.3% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| ETC 1h | 5 bars | 2.2% | 73.6% | 70.3% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| SEI 1h | 5 bars | 3.4% | 76.7% | 73.4% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| ADA 1h | 20 bars | 5.4% | 66.7% | 63.4% (as in the last bars) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| LTC 4h | 10 bars | 7.8% | 76.9% | 73.6% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| ARB 1h | 10 bars | 4.2% | 69.0% | 65.7% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| BCH 1h | 10 bars | 3.3% | 69.9% | 66.6% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| LTC 1h | 5 bars | 2.1% | 77.1% | 73.8% (as in the last bars) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| XRP 1h | 20 bars | 4.3% | 72.7% | 69.4% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| TRX 1h | 20 bars | 2.1% | 77.2% | 73.9% (recent volatility) | +3.3% | Confirmed |
| ETC 4h | 20 bars | 11.5% | 71.3% | 68.0% (as in the last bars) | +3.2% | Confirmed |
| NEAR 4h | 5 bars | 7.6% | 76.2% | 73.0% (recent volatility) | +3.2% | Confirmed |
| LINK 4h | 20 bars | 13.7% | 73.5% | 70.3% (recent volatility) | +3.2% | Confirmed |
| APT 1h | 5 bars | 3.0% | 71.1% | 67.9% (as in the last bars) | +3.2% | Confirmed |
| ETC 4h | 10 bars | 8.0% | 72.0% | 68.9% (recent volatility) | +3.2% | Confirmed |
| UNI 1h | 5 bars | 2.9% | 70.3% | 67.2% (as in the last bars) | +3.1% | Confirmed |
| XLM 1h | 10 bars | 3.0% | 74.0% | 70.8% (recent volatility) | +3.1% | Confirmed |
| NEAR 1h | 20 bars | 6.7% | 71.5% | 68.4% (recent volatility) | +3.1% | Confirmed |
| SEI 1h | 10 bars | 4.9% | 76.7% | 73.7% (usual outcome) | +3.1% | Confirmed |
| AVAX 1h | 10 bars | 4.1% | 69.4% | 66.3% (recent volatility) | +3.1% | Confirmed |
| XRP 4h | 20 bars | 10.3% | 71.0% | 67.9% (recent volatility) | +3.1% | Confirmed |
| SUI 1h | 10 bars | 4.9% | 72.1% | 69.1% (recent volatility) | +3.0% | Confirmed |
| SOL 4h | 10 bars | 10.0% | 78.4% | 75.4% (always calm) | +3.0% | Confirmed |
| RENDER 4h | 5 bars | 7.5% | 74.7% | 71.2% (as in the last bars) | +3.5% | No proven edge |
| ARB 4h | 20 bars | 12.1% | 65.6% | 62.4% (as in the last bars) | +3.3% | No proven edge |
| TIA 4h | 10 bars | 11.4% | 67.9% | 64.7% (usual outcome) | +3.3% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 4h | 10 bars | 10.9% | 72.1% | 69.0% (as in the last bars) | +3.1% | No proven edge |
| FIL 1h | 20 bars | 5.8% | 67.2% | 64.2% (recent volatility) | +3.0% | No proven edge |
| OP 4h | 5 bars | 6.9% | 71.1% | 68.1% (recent volatility) | +2.9% | No proven edge |
| XRP 1h | 10 bars | 3.0% | 73.7% | 70.8% (recent volatility) | +2.9% | No proven edge |
| BNB 4h | 5 bars | 4.6% | 80.7% | 77.8% (recent volatility) | +2.9% | No proven edge |
| TRX 4h | 10 bars | 5.9% | 87.5% | 84.7% (recent volatility) | +2.8% | No proven edge |
| SEI 1h | 20 bars | 7.1% | 76.3% | 73.5% (always calm) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| SUI 4h | 20 bars | 15.3% | 67.1% | 64.3% (recent volatility) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| TRX 4h | 5 bars | 3.9% | 88.0% | 85.3% (recent volatility) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 4h | 10 bars | 9.3% | 75.5% | 72.8% (recent volatility) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| INJ 4h | 5 bars | 8.2% | 77.4% | 74.8% (recent volatility) | +2.7% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 4h | 10 bars | 11.0% | 75.0% | 72.5% (recent volatility) | +2.6% | No proven edge |
| ARB 4h | 10 bars | 8.3% | 66.0% | 63.5% (recent volatility) | +2.5% | No proven edge |
| TRX 1h | 10 bars | 1.4% | 77.5% | 75.0% (recent volatility) | +2.5% | No proven edge |
| UNI 1h | 20 bars | 6.1% | 67.7% | 65.2% (recent volatility) | +2.5% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 4h | 5 bars | 6.5% | 76.1% | 73.6% (recent volatility) | +2.5% | No proven edge |
| BCH 1h | 20 bars | 4.8% | 69.8% | 67.3% (recent volatility) | +2.4% | No proven edge |
| LINK 1h | 20 bars | 5.6% | 71.0% | 68.8% (recent volatility) | +2.2% | No proven edge |
| UNI 4h | 20 bars | 13.7% | 76.0% | 73.8% (always calm) | +2.1% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 4h | 10 bars | 10.0% | 75.4% | 73.3% (always calm) | +2.1% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 1h | 20 bars | 7.0% | 68.9% | 66.9% (recent volatility) | +2.0% | No proven edge |
| SEI 4h | 5 bars | 7.8% | 79.6% | 78.1% (usual outcome) | +1.5% | No proven edge |
| NEAR 4h | 20 bars | 15.9% | 73.9% | 72.6% (always calm) | +1.3% | No proven edge |
| SUI 4h | 10 bars | 10.6% | 68.7% | 67.5% (recent volatility) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| HBAR 4h | 20 bars | 13.2% | 72.8% | 71.6% (recent volatility) | +1.2% | No proven edge |
| LTC 1h | 20 bars | 4.3% | 74.1% | 73.0% (recent volatility) | +1.1% | No proven edge |
| AVAX 4h | 20 bars | 14.6% | 76.9% | 75.8% (always calm) | +1.1% | No proven edge |
| TIA 4h | 20 bars | 16.5% | 61.1% | 60.1% (usual outcome) | +1.0% | No proven edge |
| OP 4h | 20 bars | 14.6% | 66.4% | 65.4% (usual outcome) | +1.0% | No proven edge |
| AAVE 4h | 20 bars | 14.4% | 75.2% | 74.2% (always calm) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| SOL 4h | 20 bars | 14.4% | 78.8% | 77.9% (always calm) | +0.9% | No proven edge |
| SEI 4h | 10 bars | 11.3% | 78.0% | 77.6% (always calm) | +0.3% | No proven edge |
| INJ 4h | 20 bars | 17.7% | 74.6% | 74.3% (always calm) | +0.3% | No proven edge |
| RENDER 4h | 20 bars | 15.8% | 73.0% | 72.7% (usual outcome) | +0.2% | No proven edge |
| SEI 4h | 20 bars | 16.3% | 74.8% | 76.8% (always calm) | -2.0% | No proven edge |
Price projection and turn windows
Confirmed by the gate: 0 of 58 pairs.
| Pair | Direction accuracy | Best baseline | Turn-window hit rate | Random dates | Forecasts | Status | Calibrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE 1d | 46.9% | 49.9% (always up) | 42.3% | 42.5% | 1202 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ADA 1d | 48.5% | 50.4% (momentum) | 38.5% | 39.1% | 1932 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| APT 1d | 42.7% | 45.0% (momentum) | 37.4% | 39.0% | 615 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ARB 1d | 51.8% | 47.2% (momentum) | 40.7% | 46.8% | 491 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ATOM 1d | 52.4% | 50.2% (momentum) | 41.9% | 36.8% | 1630 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| AVAX 1d | 47.5% | 53.0% (momentum) | 40.3% | 42.9% | 1220 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| BCH 1d | 45.6% | 49.4% (always up) | 42.3% | 45.0% | 1460 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| BNB 1d | 49.6% | 53.2% (always up) | 44.1% | 40.7% | 2061 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| BTC 1d | 45.1% | 54.1% (always up) | 37.3% | 40.4% | 2126 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| DOGE 1d | 48.6% | 51.6% (momentum) | 38.5% | 40.2% | 1576 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| DOT 1d | 51.9% | 49.4% (momentum) | 36.7% | 37.9% | 1248 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ETC 1d | 53.5% | 47.7% (momentum) | 45.7% | 41.3% | 1887 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ETH 1d | 51.4% | 52.7% (always up) | 38.0% | 39.3% | 2126 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| FIL 1d | 52.3% | 47.4% (momentum) | 42.2% | 42.1% | 1202 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| HBAR 1d | 49.8% | 50.5% (momentum) | 38.4% | 41.7% | 1508 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| INJ 1d | 50.5% | 49.5% (always up) | 37.6% | 42.7% | 1197 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| LINK 1d | 48.5% | 47.5% (always up) | 42.1% | 41.3% | 1712 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| LTC 1d | 47.1% | 49.5% (always up) | 39.6% | 42.2% | 2032 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| NEAR 1d | 51.6% | 51.4% (momentum) | 51.6% | 41.0% | 1203 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| OP 1d | 50.1% | 46.4% (momentum) | 43.8% | 44.0% | 727 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| RENDER 1d | 53.0% | 41.4% (momentum) | 36.2% | 34.1% | 338 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| SEI 1d | 50.8% | 48.8% (momentum) | 43.0% | 40.5% | 375 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| SOL 1d | 51.6% | 51.4% (always up) | 35.6% | 40.9% | 1254 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| SUI 1d | 50.2% | 48.5% (momentum) | 51.0% | 45.7% | 458 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| TIA 1d | 60.9% | 40.2% (momentum) | 41.9% | 40.9% | 313 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| TRX 1d | 48.1% | 58.8% (always up) | 39.7% | 39.8% | 1888 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| UNI 1d | 53.6% | 48.9% (momentum) | 46.9% | 43.2% | 1224 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| XLM 1d | 49.0% | 49.2% (momentum) | 34.0% | 38.8% | 1896 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| XRP 1d | 48.8% | 47.9% (momentum) | 42.4% | 43.1% | 1918 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| AAVE 4h | 50.5% | 49.3% (momentum) | 44.4% | 43.5% | 1647 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ADA 4h | 50.3% | 49.3% (momentum) | 43.5% | 40.3% | 2375 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| APT 4h | 50.9% | 48.0% (always up) | 42.3% | 45.3% | 1060 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ARB 4h | 52.2% | 51.6% (momentum) | 45.0% | 42.8% | 935 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ATOM 4h | 51.3% | 49.3% (momentum) | 42.1% | 40.8% | 2074 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| AVAX 4h | 50.8% | 51.5% (momentum) | 40.1% | 37.1% | 1665 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| BCH 4h | 50.1% | 50.0% (always up) | 45.3% | 42.0% | 1904 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| BNB 4h | 49.0% | 53.8% (always up) | 45.8% | 43.1% | 2504 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| BTC 4h | 51.2% | 51.1% (always up) | 42.6% | 43.5% | 2568 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| DOGE 4h | 48.6% | 48.6% (momentum) | 42.8% | 42.2% | 2020 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| DOT 4h | 51.8% | 49.4% (momentum) | 40.8% | 40.7% | 1692 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ETC 4h | 49.1% | 49.2% (always up) | 43.5% | 42.6% | 2330 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| ETH 4h | 51.0% | 51.4% (always up) | 41.1% | 40.6% | 2568 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| FIL 4h | 52.1% | 47.0% (always up) | 42.5% | 42.7% | 1646 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| HBAR 4h | 50.7% | 49.0% (momentum) | 40.9% | 38.7% | 1952 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| INJ 4h | 49.3% | 50.0% (momentum) | 42.5% | 41.0% | 1642 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| LINK 4h | 50.7% | 49.9% (momentum) | 45.4% | 41.6% | 2156 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| LTC 4h | 49.0% | 52.6% (always up) | 40.2% | 41.4% | 2474 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| NEAR 4h | 49.6% | 49.8% (momentum) | 38.1% | 40.3% | 1648 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| OP 4h | 49.6% | 49.1% (momentum) | 43.4% | 40.6% | 1172 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| RENDER 4h | 48.1% | 47.8% (momentum) | 38.7% | 39.4% | 543 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| SEI 4h | 50.7% | 51.1% (momentum) | 41.3% | 38.5% | 819 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| SOL 4h | 49.0% | 48.6% (momentum) | 41.6% | 42.0% | 1699 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| SUI 4h | 49.1% | 51.3% (momentum) | 42.2% | 40.7% | 902 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| TIA 4h | 49.3% | 49.5% (momentum) | 39.9% | 38.2% | 757 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| TRX 4h | 48.9% | 54.6% (always up) | 39.8% | 39.7% | 2331 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| UNI 4h | 50.1% | 49.5% (momentum) | 42.4% | 40.7% | 1669 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| XLM 4h | 51.1% | 47.9% (momentum) | 43.7% | 42.5% | 2340 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
| XRP 4h | 49.2% | 47.7% (always up) | 39.5% | 39.8% | 2361 | No proven edge | 2026-09-23 |
Method: nested walk-forward over 5 folds, parameters chosen only on past folds; direction measured 10 bars ahead; p-values from a paired block bootstrap; the gate requires at least 500 forecasts, +3 percentage points over the best baseline, p < 0.05 and a turn-window hit rate better than random dates, both corrected for multiple tests (Benjamini–Hochberg).